The World Will Leave America Behind

Thoughts on the Morning: Feb. 17th, 2025

So this isn’t foreign policy:

And neither is this:

They’re both photos. One is absolutely a master politician who understands that photos can be very powerful in terms of optics. The other is an adjudicated rapist, and convicted felon who is an embarrassment on the world stage.

But they’re not foreign policy. Foreign policy is the nuts and bolts of how nations interact with each other. It’s one of the most complicated endeavors in humanity. There’s so much that goes into foreign policy not only from a national ideals perspective, but cultural leanings & aspirations, domestic political considerations, and even the personalities of leaders and diplomats.

It all makes a difference and it all adds up.

America is pretty bad at foreign policy right now.

Like any baseball big league hitter we miss more than we get on base historically speaking when it comes to foreign policy.

Basically when it comes to foreign policy posturing doesn’t mean jack shit if you don’t get on base. Your walk up to the batter’s box might be amazing. They might even have fireworks, and killer music. But if you strike out it doesn’t matter.

You have to get on base to win a game, and you have to win games for your country to be successful.

And right now we’re fucking up with a lot of unintentional errors that will cause us to lose games on the international stage.

A big part of this stems from the fact we have intellectual light weights, drunkards, sex pests, and amorally compromised people in positions of power. If you don’t think our enemies are salivating at this you’re fooling yourself. If you don’t think our allies are rethinking the nature of their relationships with us you’re fooling yourself twice.

The other part is the lingering arrogance of American Exceptionalism which turns out is kind of bullshit. Like the old high school star athlete that’s long past his prime we’re telling war stories at the bar and posturing to anyone in shouting distance whether they wanna hear it or not. Usually they don’t. Unless they want us to pay for their bar tab.

But don’t worry for the rest of the world! They’ll move on without us.

Assuming the people who actually fire the nuclear missiles don’t go along with President Trump having a midnight temper tantrum and launching a nuke at Greenland because he’s told it’s definitely not for sale we’ll most likely suffer a loss of imperial power like over powers before us.

But why the hell should you listen to me?

Well my focus in graduate school was on early American imperialism in China under Teddy Roosevelt and Taft. America got into the international imperialist game late in Asia. We had to commit genocide on the North American continent first, fight a civil war over slavery*, and pretend that we had any say in what was going on in South America thanks to the Monroe Doctrine, which was really an exercise in wishful thinking though we’d use it in a lot of interventions in South America later on.

(*Note: Yes Lost Cause Apologists. It was over Slavery. The Southern States right to keep and expand the institution of American Slavery. That’s the only “States Rights” the Confederates ever explicitly said they cared about. We have the receipts.)

While I’m no expert on American foreign policy in general I know enough to see how we’re fucking up. A blind man could see it on the world stage.

That’s what this article is about. A contextual look at the Trump Administration’s blustering, and false bravado that’s mistakenly called foreign policy and how it might lead to the decline of American power overseas.

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What Makes American Foreign Policy Different?

One of the mistakes we often make is the practice of “shirt sleeve” diplomacy which is basically closer to a legalistic, argumentative diplomatic style. And while this might sound like the way to go, we all think we want a tough negotiator, what we really want is an effective negotiator.

Diplomacy is not only about understanding how other legal systems work but also how cultures operate, what their government wants, how it works, what’s the situation like politically for them on the ground, and more importantly if those leaders actually like you. Just like in life you can get more than you otherwise would out of a business deal if someone likes you and vice versa.

Case in point look at how Trump bends over backwards for certain political leaders he personally likes, and how he’s an asshole to others he doesn’t. It’s what makes him a bad negotiator politically speaking.

For George W Bush it was called “Cowboy Diplomacy” which was basically using military might under the guise of the Global War on Terror. It also wasn’t that effective.

In fact soft power approaches are more effective in the long run but the problem is they take a long time to pay off. For instance while Canada considers the War of 1812 akin to our Revolutionary War, the US was the aggressor against Canada in that war, they are (or were until Trump) our best friend so to speak. Our awesome neighbor to the north. That didn’t happen overnight. It was close to a century and a half improving relations.

USAID and the Peace Corps are both organizations that are part of soft power projection. They’ve arguably been more effective at securing lasting world stability and better relations for the US than any amount of armaments we’ve built.

There are times you need to consider a military option for sure. But feeding people tends to go a lot further than shooting them.

But still we like to swing our big, bloated defense budget dick to the rest of the world. The problem is no one wants to see that. They never did. But now the world might be reaching it’s tolerance for us.

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The Rebooted Trump Administration isn’t Ready for Primetime

This is a tweet from a mouthy idiot on a Facebook rant not a Vice President. The fact that so much of it is false on its face, and only plays to a mouth breathing base that constantly needs their bigotries and hatreds reaffirmed is one thing.

But from foreign policy standpoint it’s monumentally asinine.

Inexperience on the world stage is a major liability when it comes to foreign policy. JD Vance showed what a light weight he was in Munich, nine days before elections in Germany, basically criticizing the “firewalls” that Germany has against being an out and out Nazi.

Yup. The Vice President of the nation that helped to liberate Europe from the Nazis. From the country who put forth the Marshall Plan which helped to rebuild Europe after the devastation of World War II thinks the country that will forever have the shame of Nazism, Hitler, the Holocaust, and the deaths of tens of millions shouldn’t be so concerned about Swastikas.

Whatever your thoughts on this and “free speech” are it really doesn’t matter. In foreign policy this shows you’re an idiot. Meeting with the far right AFD in Germany, which is basically the Nazi Party in all but name (It’s Germany’s version of MAGA basically), is a major political blunder.

Whether Vance received his marching orders from Trump, or decided he was gonna tell those Germans how it is doesn’t matter. It was a stupid move borne from the arrogance of ignorance. You’re not supposed to make those as Vice President.

Germany is going to be a major player in whatever comes about in this new power shake up with the US essentially abandoning NATO in all but declaration.

Pissing on how they conduct domestic business in their own country especially when you don’t have a popular mandate in your own is just flat out fucking stupid.

Then there was Pete Hegseth’s utterly bafflingly simpleton stupid speech which left no doubt that he was absolutely not ready for the position he was appointed to.

Here’s the major problem with Petey Heggers. You might throw him under the bus at some point for being incompetent but the damage has essentially been done. Because then the question becomes why in the world did you appoint such a glaringly obvious buffoon to position of such importance?

You don’t ever wanna give someone you have a relationship with, business or personal, a reason to check their receipts. These leaders know how our country works. They know the Senate approved Hegseth’s appointment. This is the kind of thing you start questioning whether the US should be leading any military alliance. Setting the pace for policy decisions.

The appointment of Tulsi Gabbard to Director of National Intelligence, a woman who has expressed sympathy for Russia and spouted Russian propaganda, should’ve been immediately disqualified. Our partners in the Five Eyes, an intelligence sharing alliance with the US, will absolutely curate what information they share with us which in turn makes up less safe.

Whatever Trump’s true motivations are is really a moot point. To the rest of the world we’ve appointed the most inept, cartoonishly inexperienced people to high level positions. And while they might not say anything openly their dealings with us will change. Possibly permanently.

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Nothing Rallies a Nation like Standing Up to a Bully

Oh Canada!

If there was ever a foreign policy blunder it’s pissing off Canada.

Seriously how do you piss off a nation that’s known for being nice as a national stereotype?

But Trump found a way. Just the threat of tariffs was enough to rally Canadians together who are still struggling through a hard economic downturn. Prime Minster Trudeau is unpopular and Canada has its own MAGA-esque movement they’re dealing with. Trump may have just shot their chances of getting elected all to hell which is honestly better for the world. So thanks?

Not only that but Canada’s retaliatory tariffs are targeted more specifically at states who voted for Trump. Kentucky’s whiskey sales depend heavily on Canadian consumers and now that is most likely gonna take a permanent hit.

Seriously if you were a proud Canadian are you ever gonna look at Kentucky bourbon the same ever again? Some might but not all. Even if Canadian whiskey isn’t your thing there are other imported whiskies that don’t have a tariff that will be more than happy to replace American whiskey. (Irish and Japanese whiskey)

Not to mention Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum is getting a boost in popularity standing up to Trump early in her term. She’s building credibility simply standing up to the American President.

Both our neighbors are pissed at us right now, and for good reason.

Add in the fact we hadn’t come all the way through the post-pandemic recession danger and now with the avian flu which we won’t know how widespread it is, again thanks to Trump, if there’s serious economic pain in store for the US our closest trading partners will not be as willing to help us. Not just because we’re neighbors like they do at times.

Mexican and Canadian firefighters came to Los Angeles to help out with the recent wildfires. If a similar natural disaster were to hit a red state we might see a polite “go fuck yourself America” when Canada and/or Mexico say their “resources are stretched too thin at this time”.

And with the showing of their collective asses from JD Vance, and Pete Hegseth to Europe by abandoning Ukraine and by default NATO it’s only a matter of time before other countries adopt the same posture to us. Hell it’ll be good for their own politicians with their voters to stand up to Bully Trump so they will. Much easier to point the blame at a foreigner than look inward, right MAGA? What’s that saying about goose and ganders and what’s good for them?

Turns out countries filled with people tend to act like people. They match the energy you give them. So if you’re a dick they’ll be one right back.

At some point people come together to stand up to a bully. So it’s better not to be a bully.

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When it Comes to Trade Once She Leaves She’s Usually Gone for Good

There’s an old saying: “Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me.” Though George W. Bush had an interesting take on it.

International trade isn’t like running on down to the swap meet, apologizing for showing your ass after you tied one on, and Cletus lets you purchase that buck knife you finally got the money for because the scratch off ticket hit.

International trade takes years of negotiations. There’s treaties that involve international law, territorial considerations, maritime law, you name it.

Basically shit’s complicated. And one thing countries don’t like from their trading partners is uncertainty. And they definitely don’t like “Backsies”.

Think about it. Say you have a long standing business arrangement with a family business. It’s one you rely on for your own business. It’s not the best deal you can find but it’s reliable. The things you need are always there at a reasonably set price. Issues that arise are worked out, for the most part, if not always smoothly predictably.

But then suddenly that family business is taken over by a cousin who's out of his fucking mind. He’s making demands that you fix his fence around his property because he doesn’t like dogs that cross through your yard shitting on his lawn. He wants you to pay more for things suddenly because he feels he deserves it.

How much longer are you going to put up with that before you look for another business partner?

And let’s say in four years time the crazy cousin’s sister takes over the family business. The crazy cousin isn’t out of the picture but she promises you that it’ll go back to the way it was. But you’re with a new business partner now, and besides a few rough spots things are good. The new partner is as reliable as you need.

You gonna go back to a potential hot mess of your old business partner especially when the crazy cousin just won a lawsuit to run the business again and now he’s threatening even more crazy behavior than before?

I basically just described the situation Iowa soybean farmers found themselves in after Trump’s first trade war with China in his first term. China went to another market. They went to Brazil. Remember when Brazil was burning their rainforests to create farmland? It was because the China market opened up for them in a big way thanks to Trump.

Add on top of that reneging on treaty obligations, defense pacts, and USAID that’s suddenly cut off. So if you’re the rest of the world you’re starting to look elsewhere for what you need.

These conversations are already happening. I guarantee it. Because politicians that are up for election can’t wait four years for America to figure out if they’re gonna be a stable partner again.

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A Blustering Decline

All this bluster and posturing might play well for the cameras, and the spin on Fox News but it’s a disaster on the world stage.

You don’t want a President that plays tough for a camera. You want an effective one. Tough doesn’t get very far with other nations because now those leaders have to posture as well.

Well unless you’re Trump then you just roll over Putin or any other dictator who compliments your suit.

Then they play you like a fiddle. That’s what happens to all insecure wannabe tough guys: they get played.

They push people to work together that normally wouldn’t.
“Hey I may not like you other nation but fuck the US!”
“Agreed! Fuck the U-S-A!”

That’s what’s happening right now. The world will leave us behind thanks to Trump.

Because sometimes empires don’t go out with a bang. They go out with a whimper.